When it comes to demographic trajectories and Indian states, there are some counts on which the big shifts going on there are markedly distinct. Fertility rates in Kerala fell below replacement levels (fewer than 2.1 children for every woman) in 1988, for instance, while Bihar is expected to reach this milestone over 50 years later in 2039. The absolute number of children in Tamil Nadu began falling over three decades ago, while Bihar is the only state that is not projected to see its child population decline in absolute terms up until 2036, the furthest year for which we have projections. In the decade ahead, the southern states will see their working-age populations begin to shrink, even as the north-central states will see their working-age populations grow.
But there's one demographic area where the challenges before India's richer and poorer states converge - the challenge posed by the growing numbers and share of the elderly in the population.
The share of the elderly in the populations of Kerala and Tamil is over twice that of Uttar Pradesh or Bihar. But no matter where you are in the country, the share of the elderly in the population is rising, driven both by slowing birth rates, as well as rising life expectancy, I found in my work on India's fading demographic dividend.
At a time when differences in fertility rates are driving inter-state contestations over political representation and financial redistribution, concerns over how best to deal with a burgeoning elderly population, many of them living by themselves, could perhaps be a common conversation. It's that rare demographic big shift - one that spans the north-south divide. As some states begin to think of expanding security nets, surveying their elderly better, and tackling mental health, there's much for other states to learn too.
