This is the story of not one but at least three big shifts, and also of big shifts both past and present.
From the point of view of comparative demographics and economics, this should be the chart that shows how well-poised India is for the future in one key way.
In demographics and economics, the "dependency ratio" is an important concept, primarily because of its implications for welfare spending. If we consider children (aged 0-14) and the elderly (aged 65+) to be non-earning dependents, then the dependency ratio of a country or state is the number of dependents relative to the working-age population (aged 15-64). So if a country's dependency ratio is 55, it means that it has 55 dependents for every 100 working-age people. Countries with a higher dependency ratio are likely to need a larger welfare state that will be funded by relatively fewer workers, while those with a lower dependency ratio have more workers available to fund welfare benefits for a smaller dependent population.
This chart would suggest that with a falling dependency ratio as a result of falling birth rates, India is uniquely positioned to provide well for its dependents, as also, potentially, provide workers to the rest of the world.
But as always, things are never moving at a single speed in India.
India's poorer states have historically had higher birth rates than the richer southern and western states, and the fertility decline in the northern states took off much later than it did in the south, I wrote in a piece for us. "Since the northern and eastern states are seeing a gradual ageing with birth rates now declining, their dependency ratios are poised to fall, as the working-age population grows and is more able to support dependents. However, the southern and western states will see their dependency ratios rise steadily as their populations age, and their workforces shrink," I found.
Everywhere in the world, the impact of changing demographics will require a major reckoning. But the direction and implications of these big shifts will be radically different depending on where you're standing in India.
